As a professional working in the toilet paper industry, I’ve recently noticed a clear trend. Nearly all paper mills—and many toilet paper factory and tissue paper factory operators—are raising the prices of toilet paper base paper. This base paper is the core raw material for finished toilet paper products.
This price rebound isn’t random. It comes from a years-long imbalance between supply and demand. For anyone in the industry, understanding why this is happening is key to succeeding in 2025.
Toilet paper is a cyclical industry by nature. But China’s market has its own unique path. For decades, China’s 40 years of fast economic growth pushed up toilet paper demand every year.
This long stretch of growth created a wrong idea for many mill owners, toilet paper factory bosses, and tissue paper factory managers: they thought the market would keep growing forever. So most of them rushed to expand production. They spent a lot on new machines and facilities, hoping to profit from this endless upward trend.
But after 2022, everything changed. Toilet paper demand dropped suddenly. Soon, huge amounts of inventory piled up in warehouses.
I talked to many paper mill owners and toilet paper factory leaders. Their stories are striking: many mills and factories had to stop their production lines. The reason? Stock was too high, and demand couldn’t keep up.
This year, in one Chinese province, things got even worse. One-third of all production machines in local paper mills, toilet paper factories, and tissue paper factories were idled. That’s a clear sign of how bad the oversupply crisis was.
Now, though, the situation is turning around. A lot of small-scale toilet paper factory and tissue paper factory operations have closed down during the recent slump.
But toilet paper is still a daily necessity. People use it every day, so it gets consumed quickly. Because of this, most of the surviving mills and factories have finally cleared their extra inventory.
For two years, toilet paper base paper prices stayed at historic lows. Now, they’re ready to rebound.
“A market turnaround is here,” a toilet paper factory owner told me. “We’ve cleared our inventory, and demand is steady. We think raw material prices will keep going up in the next few months.”
For everyone in the industry—from mill operators to tissue paper factory managers—this rebound isn’t just a short-term change. It’s a correction that’s bringing the market back in line with real supply and demand rules.
